Rainfall and Temperature Trend Analysis by Mann–Kendall Test and Significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo

This study investigates the trend in monthly and annual rainfall, minimum maximum temperature (Tmin Tmax) using Mann–Kendall (MK) test Sen’s slope (SS) method evaluates significance of their variability for maize, sorghum millet yields northern Togo employing multiple regression analysis. The historical data Kara, Niamtougou, Mango Dapaong weather stations from 1977 to 2012 were used. Four non-parametric methods—Alexandersson’s Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Buishand’s Range (BRT), Pettitt’s (PT) Von Neumann’s Ratio (VNRT)—were applied detect homogeneity data. For which serially correlated, a modified version MK (pre-whitening) was utilised. Results showed an increasing rainfall all four locations. However, this only significant at (p < 0.1). There Tmax unlike where revealed decreasing 0.01). Similarly, there Tmin Dapaong, Niamtougou non-significant > 0.05). Rainfall found have increased (7.79 mm/year) more than other locations such as Kara (2.20 mm/year), (4.57 (0.67 mm). by 0.13, 0.13 0.32 °C per decade Mango, respectively, decreased 0.20 Dapaong. Likewise, 0.07, 0.02 0.01 Niamtougou. analysis nonlinear yield responses changes temperature. affects rainfed cereal crops production, but effects vary across crops. has positive effect on maize negative while Mango. In locations, crop yields. is, therefore, need adopt some adaptation strategies sustainable agricultural production Togo.